From Planning to Mature: on the Determinants of Open Source Take Off

In this paper we use data from SourceForge.net, the largest open source projects repository, to estimate the main determinants of the progress in the development of a stable and mature code of a software. We find that the less restrictive the licensing terms the larger the likelihood of reaching an advanced development status and that this effect is even stronger for newer projects. We also find that projects geared towards system administrators appear to be the more successful ones. The determinants of projects' development stage change with the age of the project in many dimensions, i.e. licensing terms, software audience and contents, thus supporting the common perception of opens source as a very dynamic phenomenon. The data seem to suggest that open source is evolving towards more commercial applications.